As the drama concludes in the Premier League today, focus turns to the Champions League and Europa League finals before international football takes over again in the form of the Nations League.
But our reader DanJackKnife on IndexGain’s Slack community asked us to discuss “When to prepare your portfolio for Euro 2020?”
Thanks for the question Dan, and if you’ve got something you’d like us to discuss fire it at us on IndexGain or Twitter (@_FIBT)
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Dan said this to get the topic underway:
I’ve started building for Euro2020 already, from around February. I looked at the qualifiers and picked a team and stuck with it.
I was inspired by a blog where they discussed “What if I bought all Liverpool/Barcelona players start of the season?” and have gone along that route for Euro 2020.
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Here’s what our roundtable thought:
Tetleys
It's not a consideration for me at the moment to be honest, too many things can change between now and then. Realistically, your port will / should have the big hitters that are expected to star for their Nations.
A lot of people got caught out in the world cup frenzy by going for all the cheap Iranians and Peruvians that had zero resale value and were never going to do anything of note during / after the tournament.
You know me though, I'm a double bagger so if I'm buying someone the question I'll be asking myself is 'what about outside of the tournament?'. Will I want them in the following season or is there a transfer in the pipeline?
If the answer is no to either question, I doubt I'll be buying.
Trading Bear
Agreed, Euro's simply way too far ahead, anything can happen between now and a years time. A drop-off from form, a lengthy injury, change of club, nation doesn't qualify, etc.
TC
Euros is interesting. Definitely too early for me.
Nick S
I won’t even consider it until this time next year. There’s so much football to be played, and money to be made in the meantime that I don’t think it warrants any attention yet.
I’m certainly not buying anyone now with the view that they’re likely to start in the Euros.
Trading Bear
There's being 1-step ahead of the curve, and then so far ahead of the curve, you're not even in the same picture.
MDJ
I agree, but the double bagging approach makes sense. Buying into players who could be part of the Euros gives some extra comfort if they have a slight dip in form during the season. If you trade for the long term, no reason to start thinking about that now.
Tetleys
The most I'll be doing is paying more attention to the favourites international squads and form.
If you’re not buying the players that are doing well for their clubs, and therefore more likely to play for their Nations, then I don’t think you’re doing it right anyway! 🤷🏼♂️
FI Mane for Nothin’
Buying specifically for the Euros probably wont start happening until January 2020 at the earliest.
However, I think it would represent savvy trading to be thinking about Euro 2020 now if buying players for the 2019/20 season. It provides an extra layer of price protection and an extra way to win with PB players from the big nations unlikely to get sold off in February as we saw this year.
Euro 2020 is also a big shop window for those big names players that may have stayed put this summer.
MDJ
January was when I was thinking to be honest.
Tetleys
Isn't this the Euros where pretty much any team who can own their own balls are going to be there?
FI Mane For Nothin’
Everyone apart from Scotland plays in it basically!
Penguin
Investor [@thefiinvestor] mentioned he was scouting Euro 2020 players on the pod [FIG Podcast].
Personally think October - December time could be optimal to do research and buy.
FI Mane For Nothin’
But why not just factor it into your 2019/20 PB acquisitions?
Penguin
Because football is an odd game, and predicting squads can be difficult. You can pick out the core players, but I’m guessing you guys are trying to find the value picks.
Chris
Because nobody else will be? 🤷🏼♂️
Why are you buying unless you’re intending to hold all season? Which means riding peaks and troughs. If that’s strategy then fair enough.
FI Mane For Nothin’
I'm approaching it slightly differently in that its a bit of an added filter on who I buy. If there are 2 players with similar attributes but one is likely to play Euro 2020 then you opt for the European player.
It reduces the downside on your PB acquisitions is what I'm saying. As people know in a few months that people might want to buy for Euros.
Chris
But not if vast majority don’t factor it into their thinking?
FI Mane For Nothin’
I'm not so sure. If people think people will be trading for it by January it means traders will probably thinking about it by October, November.
I'm not buying exclusively in that market don’t get me wrong. Just factoring it into my value calculations.
Chris
Yeah appreciate that, but you’re assuming they don’t drop as much because of Euros? But that’s assuming people are even thinking of that as a reason to hold, which won’t dawn on most until around March I’d say.
TC
I’m with Chris on that, the movement in price of players won’t be affected by Euros for a long time so unless you’re planning on holding through to then, I don’t think it really matters. They’ll still fluctuate as much as ever for the first half of the season. I might use it as part of my mid-season strategy to pick up the ones that are dipping.
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So that’s our views, but what’s yours? How far ahead of Euro 2020 are you planning for? Or aren’t you thinking about that at all yet?
Let us know @_FIBT on Twitter!