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Roundtable: When is the best time to buy Paul Pogba?

Updated: May 20, 2019

Paul Pogba, Football Index royalty! MB coming out of his ears (or haircuts!) and a brief spell of PB potential when Manchester United could be arsed under Ole Gunnar Solksjaer.


But when is the best time to buy him on Football Index? @GFFN tweeted this on Pogba this morning, which sparked the conversation on Pogba and, in turn, Neymar.


FI Mane For Nothin'

Think a few new folks are gonna get serious FOMO on Pogba when they see the reality of his media pull when the footy isn't on.


He's mentioned in bloody everything. Every story has a tenuous link back to him. Even mentioned in the Griezmann stories! Tetleys

Totally. I wish I had more, but I'm not sure how the market will react IF he leaves

or looks like he is going to.


Nick S

That's what's holding me back putting my balance in to him, and a deposit.


Frosties

100% this. I think if he leaves he could fall off a cliff [price wise, not literally we assume].


Tetleys

In all likelihood I don't think he will leave. United can't sell him unless they are replacing him with another global name to satisfy their marketing department. That said, there should be plenty of opportunity to get out.


Nick S

I don't think he will either, but it's the 'if it looks like he will leave' scenario that is keeping my money out at the moment. Although I've just bought 10 more!


FI Mane For Nothin'

I can't imagine a more perfect scenario for tonnes of MB. He would be about £9 if there wasn't so much fear mongering on the platform these days. I think folks will pile in out of frustration if he goes on a mad run where he's 1st every day for a week. Bit like what happens with Neymar and PB wins.


Tetleys

If he moves (massive IF) and Hazard, that's the Neymar rumours parked for another season. This means Neymar next season is further into his contract, closer to a move and still in the best PB league for him (as long as he stays fit). Kinda makes me think Neymar is the perfect premium buy.


DesiBallers

Definitely agree. Pogba for MB and Neymar for PB for next season if they both stay is the easiest money you can make I think.


Tetleys

Realistically, who can afford Neymar? PSG, United, City, Real Madrid and Barcelona.

  • United are a shambles trying to get into the big league again, they will overpay for a superstar

  • City is a possibility depending on his fitness / attitude

  • Real probably most likely destination, especially if the Mbappe contract renewal rumours are true

  • Barca doesnt seem logical to me at all

  • Bayern wont pay those fees and not sure he suits Juve

Very limited options, but City, United and Real Madrid are all positive for FI terms. United would be fucking amazeballs.


Frosties

I can see Mbappe moving to United. Don't know why, just have a feeling.


Anyway, back to the question, no time like the present when buying Neymar and Pogba. With media madness round the corner I feel that they are not going to go anywhere but up. Potential for Neymar to get coverage with Copa America as well.


Provided Pogba stays at United then both are preimum assets you want in your portfolio - long term game and all that.


FI Mane For Nothin'

If you assess Pogba's price graph you have to think trader sentiment is shifting and the time to buy is now. The key with Pogba though is he will be volatile and it isn't for the faint hearted.


He will always have temporary blips but if you're confident in the medium term trend you have to ride out these dips. Not one who can be traded in and out of like cheaper transfer buzz folks.


Neymar is more complicated. I'm not so sure he dominates media this summer and I dont think Copa America is well covered here. That cash can be working harder elsewhere for a good old while yet. I'd probably be looking to maybe get in at the end of June with that 5% cash bonus and hopefully get ahead of the rush.


Tetleys

Neymar and Pogba prices have been tracking each other for a long time now, I only see upside to Neymar (pending injury) and it's going to be hard for any trader to resist buying Pogba when he's in the top few of the MB charts daily. His graph is starting to creep up nicely too after recent dips.


Frosties

Both have been stretching the Index for a fair amount of time and I don't see that changing even if Neymar doesn't dominate MB over the coming weeks. Yes you can make your money work harder but you don't buy premium assets for a quick win.


FI Mane For Nothin'

You also have to consider that for this window you have top 5 MB as well as a 5% bonus. If you reinvest those dividends it has quite the compounding effect and they can be used to pick up your PB holds for 2019/20.


Tetleys

Exactly, I've been accumulating small amounts of each when there is a dip. I don't see how Neymar is cheaper on first game of the season than he is now.


Pogba is only cheaper if he moves, and for the main reason I outlined earlier (United's desire for a superstar), I don't think he will move this summer.


BUT, I believe Pogba has 2yrs left on his contract, which makes shit even more interesting.


United may want to cash in and get rid of the poison, but I can only see that if they have another marketing magnet to come in. I just dont know who that could be.


Frosties

Mbappe!

Young, hungry, obviously super talented. These are the types of players United should be targetting but they need CL football and to be more stable as a business


Tetleys

Mbappe and Sancho are the only two I can think of, Dybala at a push - but they wont join a club not in the Champions League.


TC

The safest time to buy Pogba is when he’s confirmed he’s staying. I imagine if/when that happens he’ll fly as his yield from the previous weeks/months will be crazy.


But if you wait until then, youve missed out on a load of dividends and probably CA. The flipside is he moves to Real and crashes. In which case you may have lost a fair chunk of money through capital depreciation (if you’re slow to react to the news) despite picking up a lot of dividends along the way which you can put into other holds.


It just boils down to whether you think Pogba’s staying or going. If you think he’s staying the best time to buy is now. If you think he’s leaving the best time to buy is either never, or buy now with the hope of some capital appreciation as Media Madness picks up, then sell as people realise how valuable Media Madness will be, or just steer clear.


Either way I don’t see the argument for holding off on Pogba unless you’re wanting some concrete news.


Tetleys

Can you imagine the deal will be done quickly and quietly though? Not with the parties involved. Plenty of opportunities to get out I'm guessing.


TC

Agreed, but depends how it looks like it’s shaping up. I can't imagine there would be enough buyers out there to cover the selloffs if it looks like he’s going.


As you say, Neymar has a lot less risk but probably less reward, although he could easily just get dragged up by Pogba in the medium rather than short term.


Tetleys

I'm confident in lots of Neymar reward. He's one of a couple of players than can win PB on any given day in any fixture and is a media whore who I can't see staying in France too long. Fitness aside, I just cant see much/any downside to him. Unless he extends his stay in France of course, but cant see that either. No trade is risk free though, always remember that!

TC: 👍🏼


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What do you think? When's the best time to buy Pogba? Has the boat been missed? Are you topping up if you already hold? Then, what about Neymar? Let us know @_FIBT on Twitter!

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