Back for the new season, and fresh off the new scoring matrix announcement, the roundtable discussed who might benefit the most between Liverpool's quick-thinking Trent Alexander-Arnold and the German passing/crossing machine Joshua Kimmich.
Frosties I’m thinking Trent Alexander-Arnold and Kimmich will track each other this season - similar age, both should benefit massively from new matrix
FI Mane For Nothin' I actually think we will see a small price correction on some pure PB players. Not everyone can suit the new matrix and the pot of PB that can be won is fixed.
SamF Yeah. And he'll keep going I think. Kimmich too. Doing the numbers on the Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund game yesterday was very instructive. Kimmich 45 pts extra. Sancho 45pts extra. Guerriero 33pts extra. No one else above 20. Lewa - minus points!
It's very clear what type of player suits the new matrix. Screws number 9s and defensive mids even more. Helps the creative engines.
FI Mane For Nothin' The pool of players is bigger than ever. Prices are twice as big as this time last year. PB only 29% higher than this time last year.
Matrix change was canny from FI. Just raised value of entire market. There were no "losers".
SamF But the pool likely to win regularly has just been much more clearly defined. They are big losers they just haven't dropped much yet. Which is allowing me to bin them all off.
FI Mane For Nothin' Because people just look at incremental points gained. And kind of forget the score required to win will also rise.
But in the case of TAA his chances of winning have been diminished by strengthening of goalkeepers no?
I kind of agree that pool of mids and forwards that can win has been limited. In a good way. But not sure on defenders.
SamF Not really. Goalies don't gain that much without a pen save. TAA should be one of the highest regular gainers. And centre backs have been considerably weakened.
Tetleys Unless its a centre back that plays long balls out from the back a lot and loves an aerial duel FI Mane For Nothin' Defenders were always tricky because on treble days there would always be some random cheapie who scores a GWG (Game Winning Goal). That can still happen but another random event in the form of penalty save and clean sheet can now also scupper a high baseline player.
SamF True. But attacking defenders should be coming top now much more regularly. I wouldn't be surprised if Kimmich is in double figures this year.
FI Mane For Nothin' I dont think TAA won any treble day divs last year for example. Kimmich is slightly different gravy because he posts scores big enough to beat GWG defenders.
SamF TAA won 2 double days and a treble (but it was a CL win).
FI Mane For Nothin' That's what I mean. He never won on a 15+ game day
Tetleys I'm still unsure on TAA, the new stuff will probably help him, but will it help him enough for me to play premium on a defender.
FI Mane For Nothin' Doesn't actually play many key passes or perform many dribbles. Think there is a bit of gap in perception vs reality on TAA as well. Not compared to Kimmich that is.
Frosties He was on some free-kicks last season if I remember rightly. Not sure if he scored any but this might be overlooked.
FI Mane For Nothin' Don't think he did.
FI Mane For Nothin'
/igrank def 365d
Average Performance Buzz Rankings (DEF)
1 : 151 pts from 41 - Joshua Kimmich
2 : 128 pts from 46 - Aymeric Laporte
3 : 126 pts from 33 - Sergio Ramos
4 : 125 pts from 50 - Virgil van Dijk
5 : 119 pts from 48 - Gerard Piqué
6 : 119 pts from 39 - Marquinhos
7 : 119 pts from 13 - Benjamin Mendy
8 : 116 pts from 34 - Thiago Silva
9 : 114 pts from 31 - Manuel Akanji
10 : 114 pts from 11 - Alejandro Grimaldo
11 : 110 pts from 48 - Jordi Alba
12 : 110 pts from 46 - Kalidou Koulibaly
13 : 109 pts from 30 - Nico Elvedi
14 : 108 pts from 33 - Christophe Herelle
15 : 107 pts from 42 - Niklas Sule
16 : 107 pts from 7 - Andre Ramalho
17 : 106 pts from 42 - Marcos Alonso
18 : 105 pts from 49 - Andrew Robertson
19 : 105 pts from 36 - Lucas Digne
20 : 105 pts from 38 - Jonathan Tah
21 : 105 pts from 46 - Trent Alexander-Arnold
22 : 105 pts from 35 - Dante
FI Mane For Nothin' Hes a fair old way down this list. Considering he plays for UCL winning side and won 97 points in the Premier League.
Frosties All about peak scores for me.
Chris Absolutely spot on. People missing this with TAA.
FI Mane For Nothin'
The comparison of TAA to Kimmich is not fair with a 50 point PB average gap.
PB averages more important for defenders. Especially one like TAA with limited goal threat. Less freak events to account for.
SamF Anyone regularly in that 30-50 bracket is going to look very good under the new matrix.
SamF Just picked a random game against a weaker side from April last season vs Cardiff. He would have got 44 extra points.
FI Mane For Nothin' But there could be a centre back who gains an extra 60 points by defending an aerial bombardment for 90 mins.
SamF Almost impossible. CBs wbo put in strong aerial performance see a 20pt or so increase. Kimmich is the best value no question.
FI Mane For Nothin' But my point is that peak scores have to be compared to others peak scores. E.g. Tah completing 150 passes in a game. Defender PB is still a lottery outside of Kimmich on treble game days in my opinion.
Chris Tah doesn’t benefit much at all.
TC Why doesnt he benefit? No long passes or duels?
Chris Spot on TC.
Tetleys I can see why people are giddy for him and know there will be FOMO. He's unlikely to drop much, but will he win much? For that price I'd want him to be in the hunt most weekends and I'm not sure he will.
FI Mane For Nothin' Fomo at £3.20 is also not a huge % uplift. There will be cheaper better FOMO driven opps.
SamF Tetleys - that list adjusted for the new matrix would have him much higher. That's the point. Akanji say would still have been over 4 or 5 times. TAA would have been over 10+ times.
Frosties On the flip side, if he bangs in an early Pb win then there will be some decent upside (edited)Â
FI Mane For Nothin' TAA passing % of 77 harms his baselines too. Liverpool play a high tempo game which means he loses out versus boring patient sides on just volume of passes
Think this point is often overlooked.
Tetleys Exactly. Going off that peak list, I'd rather have a Ayhan who could be linked with PL club and see his price doubleYes that list will have him higher, but it's not like thr new scoring system doesn't work for every other attacking fullback too. All scores will be higher (I'm not on Ayhan BTW)
SamF It does but there aren't that many attacking FBs. Own all of them and you'll win a lot of PB.
SamF
Assists will be key. If they stack then an assist is worth two thirds of a goal now. And three quarters if from a cross.
Tetleys
So it's all relative. If we are saying all wing backs and full backs are the beneficiaries, then it still comes down to comparative value. Yes he's 20 and English and playing for a top club, but that's not really won him much in terms MB and I don't see that changing any time soon. So then it comes down to PB and IPD. Better yeilds from IPD down the list and his PB to date hasn't been enough to warrant that price tag.But then on the flip side you have the Liverpool bias and the sentiment that comes with him being a star for one of the best PL clubs that will get people buying regardless and protect his price somewhat.
Chris
TAA benefits more than most, not every full back or wing back benefits His long passes are only slightly below Virgil van Dijk.
FI Mane For Nothin' I'm not sure what ceiling price for Kimmich is even if he smashes PB wins every other week?
SamF £4?
DanJ And then Kimmich will be a go-to name as and when they raise divs, so looks like the perfect long-term hold?
Who do you think has the biggest upside and potential to win PB dividends this season? Do you hold one or the other, both or neither? Do you think there are any big winners from the matrix change? Let us know @_FIBT.