Welcome back, and thank you for reading our blog! As transfer season gets in to full swing (on the Index at least) we hope to give you a range of opinions on the hottest Football Index topics. Nobody is right, and nobody is wrong, football is all about opinions and this is no different!
This discussion got underway on the breaking news that @footballitalia were reporting Joao Felix is reportedly signing a new contract with SL Benfica.
Felix dropped about 5p in the immediate aftermath of the breaking news, and on Twitter the discussion took place...
Here's how our 'roundtable' went:
SamF
One of the weird psychological ticks of the Index is that people lack the patience to sit on a PB player for a season but seem quite happy to wait 18 months for a kid to start picking up dividends.
TC
I was thinking about that the other day. I think it’s because people aren’t actually confident in their purchases. If you buy a youth you’ll probably see 1-2% weekly CA. With a PB hold you might see nothing for 2 months and start doubting yourself.
FI Mane For Nothin' 👌🏼
In my view., people are more likely to hold a PB player if they see others talking about them too.
Nick S
Do you think it's more people moving from one PB target to the next during the season though? There isn't many PB players I'd hold for the full season. Although there is obviously an element of people trading for one particular game and getting bored.
TC
Yeah good point. Although I think people tend to expect a PB win within 5 games of buying or they sell. Which can make sense, could be a signal that they're out of form etc.
DanJ
Totally agree with this. I reckon it’s more like 3 though. Kimmich’s massive rise over the Christmas break only took 3, possibly 4 games to spark a fire sale.
Nick S
I think that might be exaggerated by the 30 days IPD this season too. People will buy for a block of fixtures they like, with IPD and PB chances combined, after the 30 days, they'll be out and on to the next target.
TC 👍🏼
TC
Buying players for 20-40 days does make sense, especially for lower end PB/IPD.
Tetleys
That's where stats should start coming into it, i.e. has there been a fundamental shift in his playing position / team tactics? Or is he still doing the same things, but being a bit unlucky? Has he had difficult fixtures or a bit out of form?
BuzzBot
Me and my older brother, BuzzPro, can help traders find the stats they want via our online and mobile reports. We can compare PB scores over a time period and against team mates, plus we can show you how many times a player has hit over a certain score, and filter by price too! Find out more: www.indexgain.co.uk
Nick S
I think that was clear with someone like Julian Brandt at Leverkusen when Peter Bosz took over. He moved to a more central role and his PB scores picked up, winning PB twice since his arrival, with no wins before.
Chris
How about continuously just buying the PB dips? I’m certainly in that mindset for the 2019-2020 season. Keep some back for PB if value is still there, otherwise keep trading them off.
TC
I'm contemplating doing that with keepers. What's your plan for that strategy Chris?
Chris
I’ll be reviewing prices of recent rises off the back of single or successive PB wins. Using Index Gain ‘mylist’ function (a god send!) I will wait for the sentiment (i.e. trader patience) to waiver as they don’t win for a few matches.
If the players underlying stats support PB then the chances are they’ll win again or receive a boost pre-game, particularly for single days. Then decide whether to cash in or stick with my trade.
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What's do you think? Are you patient with your PB holds, or do you move targets often? Let us know how that works for you and what you've found works for your style of trading!
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